Meanwhile, back here where reason hasn't been abandoned

I’m not that old but I have been around long enough to have seen a few political cycles and to get very cynical about the media.  Currently in Australia the media is getting itself into a lather about the current state of the Australian Labor Party.  But not me - I have the ability to reason and I’m not afraid to use it!


For example….


If you’d blinked you would have missed it, but Newspoll released its quarterly poll about voting intentions in Victoria, where the Liberal government, led by Ted Baillieu, seems to be impressing no one.  Based on this poll, their primary vote is at the same level as the last election (if we are being picky it has decreased by one percent but statistically that is meaningless).  Sure it could just be the mid-term slump most governments go through.  What the poll indicates is a completely normal electoral cycle with both sides being in a competitive position with the incumbent slightly ahead.  It doesn’t support the accepted wisdom at the moment that the Labour “branch” is “toxic”, as they could pull off a win from here.  Who would win the next Victorian election?  The election is about a year away and anything could happen in that time so the answer is an unequivocal shrugging of the shoulders.   


Then on Saturday, the by-election for Anna Bligh’s seat of South Brisbane was held.  Bligh resigned from Parliament the day after the state election, which is standard practice for political leaders if they lead their party to a particularly bad defeat(which she did).  However it was characterised by the media as a “shock” resignation and a risky move considering the beating Labor had just taken. Anyway, the by-election was held and on Saturday night I tried to find out how it was going.  As I struggled to find any information, I deduced Labor must have been ahead.  Not that there’s any media bias but if the LNP had looked like winning, they would have been shouting it from the rooftops.  The result was that the Labor candidate Jackie Trad looks to have won with about 52% of the two-party preferred vote.  The overall swing against Labor was around 3% which is completely standard at a by-election, as the personal following of the previous candidate is lost and some voters might get cranky about having to vote again.  So nothing unusual there...but all media reports have emphasised the fact that the LNP candidate was ahead on the primary vote, which kind of ignores that we have a two-party preferred system and under that system, in the seat of South Brisbane (a safe Labor seat), the majority voted for non-conservative parties (ie Labor and the Greens).  Deal with it.


As for the Council elections, I could observe that, as it followed the state election so quickly, Labor was still in shock and almost forgot to campaign, hence the Liberal Party increasing its vote and winning.  But as one friend said today "it's the City Council - who gives a crap".


I’m not saying for a moment that the Queensland branch of the Labor Party doesn’t have problems.  It needs to take a good, long, hard look at itself, preferably under really unflattering fluorescent lighting so it can see all its flaws.  With a magnified mirror just to drive the message home!  But the media is no longer reporting the facts of what happened as news.  It is now driving the story, with opinion and speculation passing as factual news, and whipping itself into a frenzy as it does so.


As for Federal politics - well that’s another post.  And it will be a big one.  Watch this space…

Yours in political analysis