Follow-up: This Time it's Personal
Gough Whitlam called it “North of the Tweed Madness”. That’s right, he thought it was funny, until then came back to bite him*. I think the madness went into remission while the Labor government was in existence but now we have a brand, new LNP government and it’s back, back, BACK!!
The LNP spent almost twenty years in opposition. If you thought they might have used this time constructively, reflecting on where they might have gone wrong and take steps to make sure it didn’t happen again, or to develop a new policy direction, you’d be disappointed. It seems morelikely they just sat in the opposition benches and stewed and wrung their hands while quietly muttering under its breath “my preciousss” in the direction of the Treasury benches.
This LNP government is exceeding even my worst expectations, and I wasn’t expecting much from them. I always knew they’d invent a reason to sack public servants, despite their assurances prior to the election. I’ve been appalled at some of the cuts they have made but not surprised. The move to a ultra-conservative social agenda makes me want to scream “this is so wrong on so many levels I just don’t know where to begin” but I was dreading expecting it.
What I wasn’t expecting was amateur hour politics. I figured someone in the LNP would be able to keep their heads while everyone else was losing their’s. I thought someone would have been hard-headed enough to tell every member of the 78 seat majority to take a cold shower because, while it is a nice feeling of triumphal-ism on election night, the truth is that a majority that size is more trouble than it is worth. And that there are some new MP’s who got elected by accident and will only be in for one term. And I thought they wouldn’t have to remind Campbell Newman that he will have to work overtime to keep them all non-restive.
Because the other problem with a super majority is that, when a government wins big like that, they end up with people in parliament who stood in some seats just to make up the numbers. No one expected them to win so probably didn’t really screen them that thoroughly. The result is all sorts of nutters and conspiracy theorists are now parliamentarians. Queue Member for Nudgee and former body builder Jason Woodforth touting the old flouride is a brain altering poison chestnut…his qualification to speak on the issue, he says, is that he’s a personal trainer...
Even better is that not even twelve months since winning government, the government has lost not one, not two but three backbenchers. This was after allegations of MP’s being required to pledge allegiance to the LNP, like it was a US College Fraternity. Note to Campbell Newman: it's the Queensland state government, not a coven
This sort of disintegration is what happens to a government in maybe its third term, just before they go to an election they lose. It doesn’t happen in the first ten months of government after a monumental win.
As well as burning all the political capital he had with a long list of nastiness (see previous post), he’s making his mark nationally as well, by taking so much money out of Queensland so quickly that it has stalled the state’s economy and, based on the latest national unemployment figures, is dragging the rest of the country down too. I am worried that he is completely out of his depth and doesn’t have the faintest idea what he is doing. You could laugh but then you consider that the actions of governments will have an impact on the lives of real people.
With things kind of spiralling out of control, there may be no other option for them but to go to an early election, probably at the beginning of next year.
An early election has advantages for this government (not just us the long-suffering voters - really has it only been 10 months?). Firstly, while it is possible for them to lose the next election, it isn’t probable. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Their justification would be that they need a mandate for asset sales, tipped to be recommended in the next part of the Costello Audit (yes, there’s a sequel), as the Queensland finances are still in a parlous state and asset sales are needed quick smart. In actuality, it will be because managing that backbench is just beyond them. An early election will get rid of the accidental MP’s who have the potential to embarrass them (imagine being so mad and stupid that even the LNP takes exception to you?) and get the backbench to a more manageable number. And judging by the drip feed of anti-Bruce Flegg material (although seriously handing them the ammunition Bruce) he’ll be convinced to stand aside in his safe conservative seat of Moggill, so Campbell Newman can have a safe seat, because he’s got Buckleys of winning Ashgrove again. Sure, the voters might take a dim view of such cynical and opportunistic politics but the time to do such things is when you can’t lose. If Flegg isn’t pressured to stand aside and Newman is still the candidate for Ashgrove at the next election, it will be because, like the rest of the Queensland electorate, the LNP will had a gutful of Newman too and will be happy to see him go.
So that’s my prediction for Queensland politics. Oh, and that former Labor Minister for Education, Cameron Dick will run again in Greenslopes - he didn’t lose by much last time - and be installed as Labor leader.
Now onto the main game - there’s a federal election on 14 September which means a busy year for bloggers. Just quickly, we are not currently in an election campaign, despite what the press gallery says. Julia Gillard announced the election date, thereby saving us from six months of the commentariat speculating about the election date. They may have to write about policies instead, which means they'll have to do some research. The campaign proper doesn't start until she visits the Governor-General to dissolve parliament and the writs are issued - I don't know what the writs are either. Anyway, PM Gillard said she would do that in August. Am I the only person who is paying attention? Sometimes it feels like that...
* the reason it came back to bite him is that during his term of government there was a senate vacancy for Queensland. The rules of the senate are arcane but when there’s a senate vacancy, a replacement can be appointed by the state government where the vacancy occurs. So, Joh Bjelke-Petersen found a disgruntled ex-union guy and put him in, which in a convoluted way gave Malcolm Fraser the numbers in the senate to block supply. The rest is, as they say, history. But yes, the knifing Kevin Rudd was really brutal and unprecedented...the conservatives would never do anything like that....
The LNP spent almost twenty years in opposition. If you thought they might have used this time constructively, reflecting on where they might have gone wrong and take steps to make sure it didn’t happen again, or to develop a new policy direction, you’d be disappointed. It seems morelikely they just sat in the opposition benches and stewed and wrung their hands while quietly muttering under its breath “my preciousss” in the direction of the Treasury benches.
This LNP government is exceeding even my worst expectations, and I wasn’t expecting much from them. I always knew they’d invent a reason to sack public servants, despite their assurances prior to the election. I’ve been appalled at some of the cuts they have made but not surprised. The move to a ultra-conservative social agenda makes me want to scream “this is so wrong on so many levels I just don’t know where to begin” but I was dreading expecting it.
What I wasn’t expecting was amateur hour politics. I figured someone in the LNP would be able to keep their heads while everyone else was losing their’s. I thought someone would have been hard-headed enough to tell every member of the 78 seat majority to take a cold shower because, while it is a nice feeling of triumphal-ism on election night, the truth is that a majority that size is more trouble than it is worth. And that there are some new MP’s who got elected by accident and will only be in for one term. And I thought they wouldn’t have to remind Campbell Newman that he will have to work overtime to keep them all non-restive.
Because the other problem with a super majority is that, when a government wins big like that, they end up with people in parliament who stood in some seats just to make up the numbers. No one expected them to win so probably didn’t really screen them that thoroughly. The result is all sorts of nutters and conspiracy theorists are now parliamentarians. Queue Member for Nudgee and former body builder Jason Woodforth touting the old flouride is a brain altering poison chestnut…his qualification to speak on the issue, he says, is that he’s a personal trainer...
Even better is that not even twelve months since winning government, the government has lost not one, not two but three backbenchers. This was after allegations of MP’s being required to pledge allegiance to the LNP, like it was a US College Fraternity. Note to Campbell Newman: it's the Queensland state government, not a coven
This sort of disintegration is what happens to a government in maybe its third term, just before they go to an election they lose. It doesn’t happen in the first ten months of government after a monumental win.
As well as burning all the political capital he had with a long list of nastiness (see previous post), he’s making his mark nationally as well, by taking so much money out of Queensland so quickly that it has stalled the state’s economy and, based on the latest national unemployment figures, is dragging the rest of the country down too. I am worried that he is completely out of his depth and doesn’t have the faintest idea what he is doing. You could laugh but then you consider that the actions of governments will have an impact on the lives of real people.
With things kind of spiralling out of control, there may be no other option for them but to go to an early election, probably at the beginning of next year.
An early election has advantages for this government (not just us the long-suffering voters - really has it only been 10 months?). Firstly, while it is possible for them to lose the next election, it isn’t probable. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Their justification would be that they need a mandate for asset sales, tipped to be recommended in the next part of the Costello Audit (yes, there’s a sequel), as the Queensland finances are still in a parlous state and asset sales are needed quick smart. In actuality, it will be because managing that backbench is just beyond them. An early election will get rid of the accidental MP’s who have the potential to embarrass them (imagine being so mad and stupid that even the LNP takes exception to you?) and get the backbench to a more manageable number. And judging by the drip feed of anti-Bruce Flegg material (although seriously handing them the ammunition Bruce) he’ll be convinced to stand aside in his safe conservative seat of Moggill, so Campbell Newman can have a safe seat, because he’s got Buckleys of winning Ashgrove again. Sure, the voters might take a dim view of such cynical and opportunistic politics but the time to do such things is when you can’t lose. If Flegg isn’t pressured to stand aside and Newman is still the candidate for Ashgrove at the next election, it will be because, like the rest of the Queensland electorate, the LNP will had a gutful of Newman too and will be happy to see him go.
So that’s my prediction for Queensland politics. Oh, and that former Labor Minister for Education, Cameron Dick will run again in Greenslopes - he didn’t lose by much last time - and be installed as Labor leader.
Now onto the main game - there’s a federal election on 14 September which means a busy year for bloggers. Just quickly, we are not currently in an election campaign, despite what the press gallery says. Julia Gillard announced the election date, thereby saving us from six months of the commentariat speculating about the election date. They may have to write about policies instead, which means they'll have to do some research. The campaign proper doesn't start until she visits the Governor-General to dissolve parliament and the writs are issued - I don't know what the writs are either. Anyway, PM Gillard said she would do that in August. Am I the only person who is paying attention? Sometimes it feels like that...
* the reason it came back to bite him is that during his term of government there was a senate vacancy for Queensland. The rules of the senate are arcane but when there’s a senate vacancy, a replacement can be appointed by the state government where the vacancy occurs. So, Joh Bjelke-Petersen found a disgruntled ex-union guy and put him in, which in a convoluted way gave Malcolm Fraser the numbers in the senate to block supply. The rest is, as they say, history. But yes, the knifing Kevin Rudd was really brutal and unprecedented...the conservatives would never do anything like that....
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