And the Oscar goes to...

You know, a few months ago, I was calling it early and saying 12 Years a Slave was a certainty for Best Picture, and Chiwetel Ejiofor and Michael Fassbender had one hand each on the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor statues.  But then came American Hustle, with its all-star cast, big hair and cleavage and now nothing is predictable.  (Disclaimer:  I’m a bit mystified as to all the attention American Hustle is getting.  I thought it was an okay but not great film BUT because this okay but not great film has been getting rave reviews and the fact it seems to be a favourite for Best Picture, my opinion has morphed into thinking it is one of the most over-rated movies possibly of all time, definitely of this year and I can’t believe they voted for this. Why? Why?? Did we see the same movie?)

There are a couple of other omissions from the nominations which were puzzling, too.  Tom Hanks’s may have been airing his tuxedo in preparation for the Oscars, before finding out neither of his notable performances, as Walt Disney in Saving Mr Banks and in Captain Phillips - had been nominated.  The omission of his Captain Phillips performance is especially curious.  Did these people  leave before the last scene?? Don’t get me started on Emma Thompson missing out on a Best Actress nod for playing PL Travers in Saving Mr Banks.  It’s an Oscars outrage!

So with surprise inclusions and omissions, this year’s Oscars - the 86th - seem a bit hard to pick, with only our Cate and Matthew McConaughy near certainties.  This year’s Oscars are a bit unpredictable so Matthew McConaughy being one of the near-certainties seems fitting (nothing against Matthew McConaughy - he seems like a top bloke).

Best Supporting Actress:

In Blue Jasmine, British actress Sally Hawkins gets her first Oscar nomination for her portrayal Jasmine’s younger sister, Ginger, who never seems to learn to not take her older sister’s advice. Or maybe at the end she does finally learn…It’s her first nomination.  

As Rosalyn in American Hustle, Jennifer Lawrence was one of the film’s redeeming features. At the moment, everybody loves Jennifer Lawrence, too. One of the favourites to win, especially if American Hustle is going to go gangbusters through every category it is nominated for. On the other hand she did win last year so people may think it is enough.

Lupita Nyong’o has won all the important lead-up awards for her performance as Patsey in 12 Years a Slave. It is a brave performance as a character enduring a harrowing situation without any end in sight. The most likely winner and, I think, Kenya‘s first Oscar. 

Julia Roberts is not her usual vivacious self in August: Osage County. It was deliberate – she is playing the stroppy oldest daughter, Barbara engaged in a battle of wills with her ill, even stroppier mother. 

You may never have heard of June Squibb who has her first nomination for her performance as Kate Grant, the long-suffering wife of Bruce Dern’s Will Grant in Nebraska.   She’s 84.  Well, you don’t want to peak too soon.

Best Supporting Actor:

Somalian-born US based actor Barkhad Abdi has been nominated for his acting debut (and by debut I mean it was his first professional acting gig anywhere) as the ship hijacker and pirate leader Abduwali Muse in Captain Phillips. That’s some debut.  He’s a contender here.

Someone said to me if Bradley Cooper’s character in American Hustle, Richie DiMaso was meant to be unlikeable, then he did a really good job so his nomination here (the second in two years) isn’t just for sporting a bad perm.

In his performance as slave owner Edwin Epps in 12 Years a Slave Michael Fassbender somehow manages to be menacing and unhinged while somehow eliciting a little bit of sympathy for this cruel man (who actually existed but was even worse than depicted).  No one does complex like Fassbender and while he can’t be written off this time it’s okay if he doesn’t win - there’ll be more nominations forthcoming in the future.  

As the obnoxious Donnie in The Wolf of Wall Street, Jonah Hill more than earns this nomination. I mean, you wouldn’t want to live next door to Donnie. However, if I was forced to put money on it, the award will go to… 

Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, in which he plays Rayon, a transgender woman with AIDS and like Matthew McConaughey, he lost a lot of weight to do so.  But that’s not why he’s most likely to get the Oscar.  He’s most likely to get the Oscar because it’s an beautiful performance.  

Best Actress:

This is Amy Adams fifth Oscar nomination but her first Best Actress (the other four were for Best Supporting Actress). Her accomplished performance in American Hustle had a degree of difficulty because Sydney/Lady Emily is essentially a cypher. On the bright side, she’ll get to go to other Oscars in the future. 

I think Cate Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine is astoundingly good. Should she win (and most people think it is a lock) it will be one of those times when the best performance award goes to the best performance. I’m just trying to imagine the reaction in Australia if Cate Blanchett misses out for this performance. I mean, we’re still not reconciled to Gwyneth getting Best Actress over Blanchett’s portrayal of Elizabeth I. We may not be so forgiving this time. You’ve been warned, Academy members…

I like to think if I knew Sandra Bullock, we’d be friends. She carries Gravity almost single-handedly which is why she got the nomination and is one of the favourites to win but sci-fi doesn’t cut it with Academy voters (but it isn't about space, it is about the survival instinct!!) and as much as I like her, I’m not sure she did anything in this movie that heaps of other actresses couldn’t do. 

As Philomena Lee in Philomena, Dame Judi Dench gives one of those performances where it doesn’t look like she’s doing much acting but is in fact doing heaps but so well we don’t even notice.  That’s what makes Judi Dench awesome.  I would have thought she was Cate Blanchett’s main competition but apparently she’s not. That is weird. 

Meryl Streep’s nomination for playing Violet Weston in August:  Osage County is her 18th. You know Meryl, you could just tell the producers to stop putting your name forward for the Oscars.  I can only assume she really enjoys the after parties. She’s as good as you would expect her to be but not so good that she needed to be nominations over, say, Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks. Yep, not letting that one go. 

Best Actor:

Bruce Dern’s performance as Woody in Nebraska won him Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival which is a pretty good consolation prize.    

Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn as the unctuous Jordan Belfort in the Wolf of Wall Street is a fine one but comedy performances tend to be overlooked for Oscars. That’s a whole OP in itself. It’s his fourth nomination. He’s also nominated as a producer for the Wolf of Wall Street.  One day, Leo, one day… 

British actor Chewitel Ejiofor’s performance as the enslaved Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave might have been odds on to win earlier but truthfully, he didn’t have a chance to do much other than look miserable or frightened. That’s not a criticism incidentally.  Given the situation depicted, miserable or frightened is entirely in order. 

Matthew McConaughy’s efforts to move away from the romcoms and into more serious fare has paid off with this, his first Oscar nomination for playing Ron Woodruff in Dallas Buyers Club.  He is also the favourite, having won a lot of the lead-up awards and I can’t see him losing from here.  It would be deserved, too.  

Christian Bale’s performance as Irving in American Hustle lacked vanity, that’s for sure, but acting is more than putting on a costume. That is all.  (For the record I think Bale is a fine actor just not particularly memorable in this)

Best Picture:

Of the nine nominated films in this category, only three actually have a chance:  American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity.  With ten nominations American Hustle would have to be the frontrunner but getting the most nominations isn’t always an indicator and there’s always the chance that, by the time voting started, Academy members realised it is actually a bit rubbish.  I mean towards the end I was looking at my watch, wondering how much longer it would go on…

The next most likely winner is 12 Years a Slave.  I think what was originally perceived as a perfect “Oscar bait” movie (historic, epic, socially justice themes etc) caught people off-guard by confronting the audience with the  hopelessness and powerlessness of the slaves.  Even its ending is ambivalent, rather than triumphant (SPOILER:  it points out that while Solomon Northup was freed, he never saw justice done, and that his eventual liberation was the exception not the rule).  It is challenging in that respect which might be why it is no longer the obvious frontrunner, as people like me were predicting.  

So if there is a split vote between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave, Gravity could sneak over the line.  However, while Gravity will deservedly win many technical awards, the Academy Awards don’t reward sci-fi very often.  Boo! If it was the surprise winner, I would not be unhappy about that.

Then there are the rest...

If movies can teach us things about life, Captain Phillips taught us that, as a rule, it is best to avoid messing with the US Navy Seals. An effective “as-it-happened” film but its chances were undermined by some questions as to its authenticity.

If Spike Jonze’s Her is the latest variation on the old Pygmalion tale. If it gets an award for anything it should be for production design.  Joaquin Phoenix doesn’t really buy into the awards palaver but his performance is award worthy.  No word on why all the blokes had a Harry Hi-Pants situation going on... 

I was surprised at how much I enjoyed The Wolf of Wall Street. For a start, it lasted three hours but I didn’t feel like it was a long movie.  It is also one of the best black comedies I’ve seen. Although we really shouldn’t laugh at these people - they are appalling. I worry that some people may see it as aspirational.

Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club have a similar theme (not obvious I know) in that they are stories about individual battles with institutions and the establishment. Dallas Buyers Club is a bit of a fist-shake against big pharmaceutical companies and bureaucracy which is always topical.  And Philomena goes up against the Catholic church and forgives them, which the Catholic Church probably didn’t see coming.   

I haven’t seen Nebraska but it is about an old codger and old-age isn’t something Hollywood likes to think too much about so it won’t be getting Best Picture.  Looks to be a character and performance piece.  

But don’t feel sorry for the nominees when someone else's name is called - in that case, instead of a gold-plated statue, they'll get this $50,000 gift hamper.  So it really is great just to be nominated.