I Don't Want to Rain on Anyone's Parade but...
You know, watching conservative political parties get their comeuppance is always enjoyable. It never gets old. So while I followed Twitter last Saturday night* and saw the LNP copping a pounding from voters in the seat of Stafford, I was smiling. There may even have been air punches.
As hilarious as it was to watch the LNP trying to comprehend and explain the 18.6% swing away from it, if you are thinking, hoping or praying this will translate into an election defeat at the state election due next year, I have bad news: The magnitude of their win at the last state election in 2012 all but guarantees them a second term.
Not only did they win 78 seats (here I will make a gratuitous mention of the fact that they started with 78 seats and are now down to 73 - with apologies to Oscar Wilde, to lose one seat may be regarded as misfortune; to lose five looks like carelessness) but the winning margins in some of those seats were huge - the majority of seats were won by margins of 10% or more and many of those had TPP votes of over 70%. These margins have provided the LNP with a large enough buffer in enough seats to hold on even against a massive swing against them - and in elections a swing of around 7% is considered a landslide. For them to lose, it would require a uniform swing of the type not seen since….well the 2012 election (the swing was 15%).
Now in the Brisbane area, that type of swing is all but guaranteed, based on the result in Stafford and to a lesser extent the drop in support of 17% seen in the Redcliffe by-election. But Brisbane is not Queensland. While the more progressive city folk are most unhappy with thewinding back of the last 20 years ultra-conservative direction the LNP have taken, it also has to be pointed out that historically Brisbane is a Labor town and the current LNP domination of seats is an aberration courtesy of that avalanche that was anti-Labor voter sentiment at the last election. Even seats considered safe or safe-ish for Labor ended up with the LNP. Stafford (and it’s various incarnations over the years - I think it was the seat of Windsor at one stage) had been held by Labor for a long time. Same goes for Redcliffe. So it was always likely that these seats, and others like them, would return to Labor once voters had put away their baseball bats and normal voting patterns resumed. The massive loss of votes for the LNP is just a bonus.
The other factor to consider is that while the LNP government is on the nose in Brisbane, in other areas Newman and Co are still popular and will be beneficiaries of the electorate's habit of giving first term governments the benefit of the doubt. There will also be people who, even though they are disgruntled at the LNP, will still think Labor deserves a bit more time in opposition to think about what they did and why it was so unpopular.
It isn’t all bad news though, unless you’re Campbell Newman. The seat of Stafford is right next door to Newman’s seat of Ashgrove, which he holds with a margin of around 5%. In some areas of Queensland, Newman is still a newbie, whereas in Brisbane, he’s on his third term in public office (two terms as Lord Mayor and one term as Premier). And the third term is always when the rot sets in, regardless of political party. Combined with theincompetence of Jarrod Blieje unpopularity of the conservative direction, it is hard to see how Campbell Newman can go against the tide and keep his seat in parliament.
*Grabs popcorn*
With their leader's seat being marginal and in danger, the LNP is now vulnerable to leadership speculation. With this in mind, it isn't out of the realms of possibility that the LNP would pre-empt this potential leadership talk by sorting out their leadership situation prior to the election. Once upon a time, it was considered sporting to give first term leaders a chance to go to a second election but in 2010, Labor changed that by dumping Kevin Rudd during his first term. And before you say the Tories wouldn’t do the same, Ted Bailleau in Victoria was tapped on the shoulder in his first term as was Terry Mills in the Northern Territory. While he wasn't dumped, Barry O’Farrell had to step down in his first term, too (which I actually thought was a pity because he seemed to be one of the few grown-ups in government at the moment). Anyway, whatever happens I think Campbell Newman will be unemployed soon. And 14,000 former Queensland public servants will savour the schadenfreude.
I'm not saying the LNP will coast to victory at the next election, or that they have nothing to worry: recent electoral history has been volatile and anything could happen. It is most likely they will lose heaps of seats in and around Brisbane and other traditionally "Labor" seats throughout Queensland will return to the ALP. They may even experience a swing against them which would usually result in a loss. They'll be bloodied and bruised but still be in government. Boo! The question to answer then is who will be Premier afterwards....
*I realise I have just revealed that I spent a Saturday night at home watching for by-election results on Twitter - gentlemen, the queue starts here….
As hilarious as it was to watch the LNP trying to comprehend and explain the 18.6% swing away from it, if you are thinking, hoping or praying this will translate into an election defeat at the state election due next year, I have bad news: The magnitude of their win at the last state election in 2012 all but guarantees them a second term.
Not only did they win 78 seats (here I will make a gratuitous mention of the fact that they started with 78 seats and are now down to 73 - with apologies to Oscar Wilde, to lose one seat may be regarded as misfortune; to lose five looks like carelessness) but the winning margins in some of those seats were huge - the majority of seats were won by margins of 10% or more and many of those had TPP votes of over 70%. These margins have provided the LNP with a large enough buffer in enough seats to hold on even against a massive swing against them - and in elections a swing of around 7% is considered a landslide. For them to lose, it would require a uniform swing of the type not seen since….well the 2012 election (the swing was 15%).
Now in the Brisbane area, that type of swing is all but guaranteed, based on the result in Stafford and to a lesser extent the drop in support of 17% seen in the Redcliffe by-election. But Brisbane is not Queensland. While the more progressive city folk are most unhappy with the
The other factor to consider is that while the LNP government is on the nose in Brisbane, in other areas Newman and Co are still popular and will be beneficiaries of the electorate's habit of giving first term governments the benefit of the doubt. There will also be people who, even though they are disgruntled at the LNP, will still think Labor deserves a bit more time in opposition to think about what they did and why it was so unpopular.
It isn’t all bad news though, unless you’re Campbell Newman. The seat of Stafford is right next door to Newman’s seat of Ashgrove, which he holds with a margin of around 5%. In some areas of Queensland, Newman is still a newbie, whereas in Brisbane, he’s on his third term in public office (two terms as Lord Mayor and one term as Premier). And the third term is always when the rot sets in, regardless of political party. Combined with the
*Grabs popcorn*
With their leader's seat being marginal and in danger, the LNP is now vulnerable to leadership speculation. With this in mind, it isn't out of the realms of possibility that the LNP would pre-empt this potential leadership talk by sorting out their leadership situation prior to the election. Once upon a time, it was considered sporting to give first term leaders a chance to go to a second election but in 2010, Labor changed that by dumping Kevin Rudd during his first term. And before you say the Tories wouldn’t do the same, Ted Bailleau in Victoria was tapped on the shoulder in his first term as was Terry Mills in the Northern Territory. While he wasn't dumped, Barry O’Farrell had to step down in his first term, too (which I actually thought was a pity because he seemed to be one of the few grown-ups in government at the moment). Anyway, whatever happens I think Campbell Newman will be unemployed soon. And 14,000 former Queensland public servants will savour the schadenfreude.
I'm not saying the LNP will coast to victory at the next election, or that they have nothing to worry: recent electoral history has been volatile and anything could happen. It is most likely they will lose heaps of seats in and around Brisbane and other traditionally "Labor" seats throughout Queensland will return to the ALP. They may even experience a swing against them which would usually result in a loss. They'll be bloodied and bruised but still be in government. Boo! The question to answer then is who will be Premier afterwards....
*I realise I have just revealed that I spent a Saturday night at home watching for by-election results on Twitter - gentlemen, the queue starts here….
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