Queensland Election 2015 - The Great Correction
Just a note: the votes have been counted and it would seem I got it wrong: Labor have been returned to government with 44 seats plus the support of independent Peter Wellington. To be fair, no one saw this coming. Stunning result.
When the whole of the country was still carrying a much earned case of holiday brain from the Christmas/New Year break, Queensland Premier (for now...) Campbell Newman called the state election that most people had slated for sometime in March. Surprise!!
Yay! said no one at the prospect of campaigning in the middle of a (very hot even by our usual standards - thanks global warming) Queensland summer. Huh...election...what...? muttered the rest of the voters. While there is something to be said about a short, sharp election campaign, cutting short people's holidays is not the way to get votes Campbell.
But what may well be the most ignored election campaign in Australian history ends today (mental note to self: you have to vote today) and the polls are pointing to a result which is best described as a correction.
As most people know, the last Queensland election resulted in the most lop-sided parliament seen in Queensland. The LNP with 78 seats, Labor with 7 and four independent or minor party MPs. This sort of result is neither good for democracy nor for effective government, no matter how triumphal (or desolate) it feels on election night. Over the three year term, the LNP have behaved exactly the way they shouldn't have following a massive victory: no one was there (not publicly anyway) to pour a cold bucket of water on them to remind them that they are only as good as their next election result. They have lost two by-elections with record setting swings against them and a few MPs have left the party to become independents. They have pissed off just about everyone - lawyers, doctors, nurses, public servants, environmentalists, emergency service workers...
So, in the face of this, how might the new parliament look after today? Well, according to the last polls of the campaign, the two-party preferred vote looks to be stuck at around 52-48 in the LNP's favour. This is a swing against them of about 10%. If not for the massive victory last time when they got about 62% of the TPP, they'd be goners. As much as they'll retain government, expect to see a lot of really stricken faces in the LNP camp tonight. Also, it seems they'll be looking for a new Premier: Campbell Newman will be losing his seat of Ashgrove. A conservative premier in a marginal, inner-city seat was always going to be problematic, every time they faced an election. Looks like the voters of Ashgrove, who are apparently sick to death of the circus that came to town last election and this election, are going to solve this problem once and for all. What can I say Campbell but - BYE!!
As for the Labor Party, they are likely to pick up around 25 seats, mainly in Brisbane and in North Queensland - it will be a case of seats returning to them. Labor can also look forward to being the opposition in a much more balanced parliament. They can distribute the portfolios throughout a wider talent pool and their MPs will be able to focus on one area in particular rather than the doubling, tripling and quadrupling up that was necessary this term. Annastacia Palaszczuk deserves credit for taking on the most thankless role in Australian politics and keeping her party together to the extent that the sitting government got very, very nervous (although the LNP did a lot of that to themselves...). Palaszczuk has grown in confidence throughout the campaign and isn't nearly as wooden at the end of this campaign as she has been over the last three years. It would be unfair to replace her as leader considering the work she has put in over the last three years so I see her staying on as Labor leader. For now.
The talk of a hung parliament and a minority Labor government, making the LNP a one term government I think is mainly political junkies thinking out loud. However, if it was to happen, or even got close, it is the policy of selling assets that changed so many votes - plenty of polling told them it would be unpopular so the LNP can't say it wasn't warned. Also, if that did eventuate, Labor would be in government defending a teensy majority: like Julia Gillard's government and the recently despatched Liberal government in Victoria, they couldn't afford to lose one vote and that makes governing difficult and they would probably be a one-term government as well. And, despite my leftie views, I can see that the Labor government was tossed out for good reasons and need time to think about why that happened, learn from their mistakes and renew themselves. Next time, though....
When the whole of the country was still carrying a much earned case of holiday brain from the Christmas/New Year break, Queensland Premier (for now...) Campbell Newman called the state election that most people had slated for sometime in March. Surprise!!
Yay! said no one at the prospect of campaigning in the middle of a (very hot even by our usual standards - thanks global warming) Queensland summer. Huh...election...what...? muttered the rest of the voters. While there is something to be said about a short, sharp election campaign, cutting short people's holidays is not the way to get votes Campbell.
But what may well be the most ignored election campaign in Australian history ends today (mental note to self: you have to vote today) and the polls are pointing to a result which is best described as a correction.
As most people know, the last Queensland election resulted in the most lop-sided parliament seen in Queensland. The LNP with 78 seats, Labor with 7 and four independent or minor party MPs. This sort of result is neither good for democracy nor for effective government, no matter how triumphal (or desolate) it feels on election night. Over the three year term, the LNP have behaved exactly the way they shouldn't have following a massive victory: no one was there (not publicly anyway) to pour a cold bucket of water on them to remind them that they are only as good as their next election result. They have lost two by-elections with record setting swings against them and a few MPs have left the party to become independents. They have pissed off just about everyone - lawyers, doctors, nurses, public servants, environmentalists, emergency service workers...
So, in the face of this, how might the new parliament look after today? Well, according to the last polls of the campaign, the two-party preferred vote looks to be stuck at around 52-48 in the LNP's favour. This is a swing against them of about 10%. If not for the massive victory last time when they got about 62% of the TPP, they'd be goners. As much as they'll retain government, expect to see a lot of really stricken faces in the LNP camp tonight. Also, it seems they'll be looking for a new Premier: Campbell Newman will be losing his seat of Ashgrove. A conservative premier in a marginal, inner-city seat was always going to be problematic, every time they faced an election. Looks like the voters of Ashgrove, who are apparently sick to death of the circus that came to town last election and this election, are going to solve this problem once and for all. What can I say Campbell but - BYE!!
As for the Labor Party, they are likely to pick up around 25 seats, mainly in Brisbane and in North Queensland - it will be a case of seats returning to them. Labor can also look forward to being the opposition in a much more balanced parliament. They can distribute the portfolios throughout a wider talent pool and their MPs will be able to focus on one area in particular rather than the doubling, tripling and quadrupling up that was necessary this term. Annastacia Palaszczuk deserves credit for taking on the most thankless role in Australian politics and keeping her party together to the extent that the sitting government got very, very nervous (although the LNP did a lot of that to themselves...). Palaszczuk has grown in confidence throughout the campaign and isn't nearly as wooden at the end of this campaign as she has been over the last three years. It would be unfair to replace her as leader considering the work she has put in over the last three years so I see her staying on as Labor leader. For now.
The talk of a hung parliament and a minority Labor government, making the LNP a one term government I think is mainly political junkies thinking out loud. However, if it was to happen, or even got close, it is the policy of selling assets that changed so many votes - plenty of polling told them it would be unpopular so the LNP can't say it wasn't warned. Also, if that did eventuate, Labor would be in government defending a teensy majority: like Julia Gillard's government and the recently despatched Liberal government in Victoria, they couldn't afford to lose one vote and that makes governing difficult and they would probably be a one-term government as well. And, despite my leftie views, I can see that the Labor government was tossed out for good reasons and need time to think about why that happened, learn from their mistakes and renew themselves. Next time, though....
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