The Oscars 2016: White, White, White*
It is a discussion that is well overdue but I would make two caveats: Firstly, how Oscar noms are decided (and it is a byzantine process, repeatedly bringing about some puzzling results) is not the step in the film making process at which to be calling for revolution. The problem lies quite a few steps back in the film-making process, with the types of films getting the green light and in casting and other employment decisions, as well as who has access to the opportunities to have film careers in the first place. That said, perhaps the Oscars is the most obvious indicator of a problem which (and being lazy I have no stats on this, just observation) seems to be getting worse, not better. It is just gob smacking we need to have this conversation in 2016.
Secondly, I would make the point that while the lack of non-white faces in film has got most of the attention, women make up 50% of the population and yet if you look at the films nominated for best picture, they are overwhelmingly male. Take away films from the Australian film industry (Mad Max: Fury Road was something of a feminist statement apparently) and the Irish Film Industry (which brought us Room and Brooklyn), the films originating in Hollywood are almost completely white and male. I can’t help but wonder if not for the Actress categories, how many women have been nominated and as the answer is not even close to 50%, shouldn’t some attention be given to that disparity as well?
I’ll get off my soapbox now and turn my attention to likely winners.
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Usually there’s a couple of films that are considered frontrunners for Best Picture but this year it is all over the shop. There was some excitement around Bridge of Spies when it was released but Academy voters only give Steven Spielberg awards if they have no other choice . There might have also been whispers about Mad Max: Fury Road pulling off an unlikely victory. I should do my patriotic duty and talk up its chances but action films rarely win Best Picture - it should do well in the techie categories though (plus see Best Director analysis). There is love for it though with ten nominations, only behind The Revenant’s twelve nominations. The Martian may not be considered a “worthy” enough film and is basically sci-fi which is almost always overlooked. Brooklyn kind of seems out of place among this year’s nominees. It is a cosy film about nice people (seriously, everyone is nice - even the mean people aren’t that damaging). I was expecting something a bit epic about the Irish Diaspora. My personal choice for Best Picture though would be Room. I’m still recovering from it. Then there are the two very topical films - Spotlight and The Big Short. The Big Short is a black comedy (and I’ve mentioned the short shrift comedies get from the Academy a few times as well) but I found it both funny and scary. Seriously, that’s how high finance works???? Was no one else horrified? Perhaps it qualifies as a horror film, which wouldn't help - the last (and I think only) horror film to win Best Picture was Silence of the Lambs. I think Spotlight is still in the running - a fine film about one of history’s greatest scandals. Anyway, based on number of nominations (twelve) and momentum The Revenant seems to be firming as the late favourite.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Apparently, this is Leo’s year because he’s been nominated five times without a win and this is a travesty. But I say “amateur”! Paul Newman was nominated seven times before he got his gong. Richard Burton was nominated seven times without a win and Peter O’Toole eight times (once after they gave him an honorary Oscar). Glenn Close has been nominated six times without a win which is all sorts of wrong. This is a good time to discuss the Oscar’s habit of catch up awards. They give an award for a performance that shoulda, coulda, woulda won if not for….think Russell Crowe in The Insider losing out to Kevin Spacey for his hard-to-top performance in American Beauty. Rusty got his Oscar for Gladiator but it was really for The Insider. My point is that Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscar this year for The Revenant is really for The Wolf of Wall Street (that year he lost out - not unfairly - to Matthew McConaghy). And in a few years’ time, Michael Fassbender will get an Oscar for Steve Jobs, for a lesser role… Eddie Redmayne was an early frontrunner for The Danish Girl but the film only got middling reviews (not to mention a few too many factual errors). If Matt Damon were to win (and he won’t this year) he would be in an exclusive club with Emma Thompson for winning Oscars for acting and writing. Bryan Cranston’s turn as Dalton Trumbo in Trumbo would have to be a sentimental favourite but it has been eclipsed by Mr Di Caprio and possibly Fassbender.
I’d would also like to go on record as saying nine year old Jacob Tremblaye from Room should have been nominated in this category (he was in almost every scene). The only reason I can think that he wasn’t (apart from maybe his parents being smart and responsible) is that actors don’t want people to know their job can be done by children…
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
A lot of people might hear the name Brie Larson and ask “who?” but she’s the favourite for her excellent and moving performance as Joy in Room. If you’re wondering where else you might have seen her, she was in The United States of Tara and played Amy Schumer’s sister in Trainwreck. No one else in is contention. Our Cate’s turn in Carol was tipped early on but it seems to have lost momentum and the film missing out on a Best Picture nod doesn’t help (I wasn't surprised it didn't get nominated - the sets and costumes stole the movie and that’s a problem). After a long career, Charlotte Rampling got her first nomination for 45 Years and might have been a threat as a sentimental favourite but she did herself no favours with her contribution to the diversity debate. Saoirse Ronan wracks up her second Oscar nod for Brooklyn (the first was for the excellent Atonement) but will no doubt have many more opportunities. Jennifer Lawrence racks up her fourth nomination for the titular Joy but it has no other nominations so she can kick back this year. I think Jennifer Lawrence is a talented actress but four nominations since 2010 is getting excessive. Perhaps the legend that is Maggie Smith should have got a nod for The Lady in the Van.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Tom Hardy - The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Now if Idris Elba** had been nominated in this category for his performance in Beasts of No Nation, the whole diversity brouhaha wouldn’t have happened. But it is on Netflix and the old codgers at the Academy may not have cottoned onto the newfangled streaming service yet. He won this category at the Screen Actors’ Guild awards which is usually a good indicator of who will win the Oscar, so his absence means that this category is wide open. I thought Christian Bale was terrific as the smartest but oddest guy in the room in The Big Short. I don’t think I read a review of Bridge of Spies that didn’t single out British thespian Mark Rylance’s performance. Then the Academy got all sentimental and nominated Sylvester Stallone for playing (very well by all accounts) an ageing Rocky Balboa in Creed - men and their boxing movies, eh? Mark Ruffalo’s big scene in Spotlight is a ready-made Oscar clip but I think Stanley Tucci should have been the one nominated for his performance in that movie (nothing against Ruffalo BTW who will definitely get a turn at the podium one day). Seriously I can’t pick this one. If The Revenant is on a roll, it could go to Tom Hardy’s bad guy John Fitzgerald. I think all the nominees should prepare an acceptance speech but if I had to predict, I would say Sylvester Stallone or Mark Rylance.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara - Carol
Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
The recipient of this award this year should be Julie Walters for her scene-stealing turn as Mrs Kehoe in Brooklyn (her speech about the dangers of giddiness is a classic). But she’s not here for some reason - I told you the nomination process was mysterious. Jennifer Jason Leigh is very much the dark horse for her performance in The Hateful Eight. Kate Winslet was in a similar boat (no pun intended) as her bestie Leonardo in that she was being nominated over and over without a win, until she took Ricky Gervais’s advice and did a holocaust film, The Reader and got an Oscar. And now it looks like she’ll be getting another one for playing Steve Jobs’s conscience (actually his Marketing Director) Joanna in Steve Jobs. Sweden’s Alicia Vikander (whose career is going gangbusters at the moment) is the next favourite for The Danish Girl as her role as Gerda Wegener was in fact the female lead. Don’t feel too sorry for her if she doesn’t win - she gets to take home Michael Fassbender. As journalist Sacha Pfieffer, Rachel McAdams had little to do in Spotlight than look sympathetic and suspicious but she did it well. Rooney Mara’s role as Therese in Carol was in fact the co-lead with Cate Blanchett which would put her in the running except that everyone has forgotten about the movie.
DIRECTING
The Big Short - Adam McKay
Mad Max: Fury Road - George Miller
The Revenant - Alejandro G Inarritu
Room - Lenny Abrahamson
Spotlight - Tom McCarthy
As there isn’t an out and out frontrunner and the vote could split five ways, to be honest, Australia’s George Miller may have a shot at this one, perhaps as a bit of a catch-up award for all the Mad Max films and a long and distinguished career^. Mexico’s Alejandro G Inarritu deservedly won this award last year for Birdman. Not sure if this hurts his chances or not - only two other directors have won this award two years’ running (I’ve been researching) and it was quite some time ago, back in the day when the Oscars were almost exclusively for Hollywood films - John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley in 1939 and 1940. Joseph L Mankiewicz^^ won it for The Letter for Three Wives (1949) and the legendary All About Eve (1950) . The shoot for The Revenant has entered into Hollywood lore as it was gruelling and harsh; for instance, they only had a few hours of light per day in which to film. So I think Inarritu will become a trivia question this year (name a director who has won back-to-back Oscars).
The other three directors are all first timers: Before The Big Short, Adam Mckay was best known as the director of, among other comedies, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy. Tom McCarthy directed a little film you should see called The Station Agent which gave Peter Dinklage his big break. If it were up to me, I would give it to Lenny Abrahamson for Room if only for the escape scene. I think I stopped breathing. He also made a excellent film a couple of years back called Frank which you should also see.
* I’m quite proud of this title - it both also acknowledges the genius Mel Brooks’s Oscar winning screenplay for The Producers and manages to be topical.
** and yes Idris Elba should totally be the next James Bond
^ maybe at some stage they’ll get round to honouring another Australian great, Peter Weir (five nominations, no Oscar)
^^ factoid: his brother Herman Mankiewicz co-wrote Citizen Kane - they were a talented family.
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