In these interesting times, escapism is good.

In the classic film, “The Third Man” there is a short speech by Orson Welles’ character, Harry Reid, which goes “…You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.”

So the Trump presidency should be a boon for the arts.  I don’t want to be snarky, but the last year of Obama’s presidency didn’t produce a vintage year of films if this year’s Oscars are anything to go by.  Lots of good but not great movies and I really can’t think of any that were blatantly overlooked, except may be The Hunt of the Wilderpeople.   Perhaps Academy members were in shock from the US election result when they voted and that explains why the pleasant but underwhelming La La Land is now one of three movies to hold the record for movies with the highest number of nominations ever : 14 (for those playing at home the other two are  All About Eve and Titanic).  When things get on a roll…On the plus side, this year’s nominations and films are a lot more representative - no #Oscarssowhite this year.  

Best picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

It is said that Hollywood likes movies about Hollywood more than any other genre and this is why La La Land is so popular – as well as its fourteen nominations, it has been cutting a swathe through all the lead up awards that count.  However there has been a bit of a backlash from people (like me) who are kind of wondering what all the fuss is about it.  It’s a nice film but… my theory about La La Land’s popularity is that while it seems frothy, light and simple, that is its strength in the current world climate – what better than a pleasant, all singing and dancing romance to take our minds off impending doom? 

Manchester by the Sea is its main competition.  Of the nominated films I’ve seen, it is it is the one that could hold its own in any year’s Best Picture Category although if you are feeling at all emotionally fragile, maybe give it a miss.  Even if you’re feeling quite sturdy emotionally, I’d still suggest a stiff drink afterwards – it is quietly devastating.  Out of the rest of the nominated films, if there was going to be a big surprise it would be Hidden Figures – it has been very well-received, won the “best ensemble” at the SAG Awards and it is the highest grossing of all the Best Picture nominations (possibly from teachers making it a school excursion in the hope of getting students interested in STEM subjects).  And Hollywood loves that even more than movies about Hollywood.

The Aussie film Lion has a lot going for it and if there was an award for biggest tearjerker of the year, it would be a shoe-in. Hackshaw Ridge is also an Australian film despite it not being about anything Australian.  Two Aussie films - Hurrah!  They are long shots for winning the big prize though.  Arrival has its admirers but also detractors in equal measure.  Hell or High Water got good early reviews but kind of lost momentum.  There is a school of thought that nodding off during a movie is valid criticism so, if the awards were up to me, things wouldn’t be looking good for Fences and Moonlight.   The main criticism of Fences is that, despite two fine performances from Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, it’s really a filmed stage play. Moonlight is worth staying with for the poignant final scenes but it’s a slow journey getting there.  

Best supporting actor

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester By the Sea
Dev Patel - Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

Apparently the Australian accent is one of the hardest accents to do so that should be worth a few extra votes for Dev Patel who played the adult Saroo in Lion.  Jeff Bridges notches up his seventh nomination (it’s okay – he got something to put on his mantle piece for Crazy Heart) as Texas Ranger Marcus Hamilton in Hell or Highwater.  Michael Shannon seems very much an actor’s actor and gets his second nod in this category (the first was for Revolutionary Road a few years back) for the otherwise ignored Nocturnal Animals.  Lucas Hedges had a tricky character to play in Manchester by the Sea in that his character, Patrick, wasn’t always sympathetic and he did it well but…Mahershala Ali has scooped up all the lead up awards for his excellent performance in Moonlight as Blue, who provides the child, Chiron with some sense of stability and a positive adult role model (except for being a drug dealer).  Now I’m going to editorialise:  there’s an actor called Tom Bennett who steals every scene he is in playing a wealthy but stupid aristocrat in Love and Friendship and in my opinion, he should be getting this award this year.  That is all.

Best actor

Casey Affleck - Manchester By the Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences

I saw Captain Fantastic and thought it was terrific and should have got a nomination for Best Screenplay as well as this one for Viggo Mortensen (it’s his second nomination – I get the impression he’s very well-liked).  He plays Ben, a father bringing up his six children ‘off the grid’.   Andrew Garfield gets his first nomination for Hackshaw Ridge playing Desmond Doss, who joins the army to be a medic but as a Seventh Day Adventist refuses to carry a gun.  Ryan Gosling is nominated for La La Land – he can carry a tune and hoof a bit but, despite learning to play piano for the role, his turn as Sebastian in La La Land may be considered a bit light. 

Really it's between Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck.  Affleck has been the frontrunner for a while but there’s been a bit of scandal about an earlier workplace harassment civil case brought against him by two former female colleagues.  I’m torn mainly because out of the five nominees, his is the performance as the bereaved Lee in Manchester by the Sea is the one that stands out but on the other hand, should bad behaviour be detached from professional achievement?   It’s a perennial question vis a vis public figures.  Denzel Washington gives the best performance of his career as Troy Maxson in Fences (factoid time:  if he wins it will be his third Oscar and he will join Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman and Meryl Streep which is quite some company*) so it wouldn’t be an outrage if he did win.  Some people say little Sunny Dewar should have been nominated in this category for his performance in Lion and I would be inclined to agree - I forgot I was watching an actor.

Best supporting actress

Viola Davis - Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester By the Sea

This will go to Viola Davis for her performance as Rose Maxson in Fences – shes already won a Tony Award for it as well.  The only point of interest here is what Viola will be wearing because she always looks fab on the red carpet. It’s her third nomination.  Naomie Harris filmed her part in Moonlight during a three day break in filming from the latest James Bond.  MI6 agent to crack addicted single mother – she has range and would be my pick for this award.  In Manchester by the Sea, Michelle Williams, as Randi, Lee’s ex-wife, only has a few brief scenes but it is a pivotal role.  It is her third nominations (should have won IMO for Brokeback Mountain) and will now qualify her for the list of the overlooked.  Nicole Kidman dons a terrible wig in order to look like suburban mum, Sue Brierley, and pretty much succeeds in Lion.  In Hidden Figures, Octavia Spencer plays Dorothy Vaughan, the real life mathematician who taught herself computer programming.  

Best actress

Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Emma Stone - La La Land
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone is the one most likely for her performance in La La Land. And it will be for Mia’s “audition” scene which is the one bit that lives up to the hype.  However, Isabelle Huppert has for a long time been one of those “best actors/actresses never to be nominated” and people may feel that her performance in Elle is their chance to reward her for a long and distinguished career. On the other hand, the subject matter – her character Michele plots revenge against her rapist - may put people off.  Natalie Portman was an early favourite for playing Jackie Kennedy in the immediate aftermath of JFK’s assassination and she seems very cross and quite upset about her husband’s murder (this is my way of saying the film lacked insight).  Ruth Negga is nominated for Loving which is yet to be released in Australia so I haven’t seen it.  Meryl Streep notches up her 20^th nomination.  If we’re honest, not all the performances she’s been nominated for deserved it (The Devil Wears Prada for instance or August: Orange County – I’m still a bit mad about that one because she edged out Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks) but I think her performance in Florence Foster Jenkins is one of her best.  You have to remember, she’s playing an ordinary woman.  

Best director

Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By the Sea
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

Damien Chazelle has this wrapped up for La La Land, if only for having the chutzpah for pitching an original movie musical. It is almost not worth mentioning the other nominees, so much the favourite is young Damien (he’s just turned 32 so if he wins he'll be the youngest ever to win this award) but I will.  If there’s an unexpected turn of events, it is likely to be Kenneth Lonergan for his direction of Manchester by the Sea.  Also a movie tip – if you haven’t already, check out his earlier film You Can Count On Me.  The other points of interest here are that Mel Gibson appears to have been forgiven for his actually inexcusable behaviour.  Denis Villeneuve is currently directing the Bladerunner sequel which is a lot of pressure and Barry Jenkins has been nominated for only his second feature film and his name sounds Aussie as.  Seriously, I think everyone in Australia grew up down the road from someone called Barry Jenkins.

So that’s a wrap on this year’s Oscars.  My other prediction is there’s probably going to be lots of political statements during the acceptance speeches.  Personally, I’m looking forward to all the Jimmy Kimmel vs Matt Damon jokes.

* Yes Daniel Day-Lewis has also won three but all three have been for Best Actor.  Nicholson, Streep and Bergman won two best actor/actress Oscars plus one best supporting.  Denzel Washington has a best supporting and a best actor and watch this space...