Oscars 2018: Treading Carefully

Last year it was revealed, to the surprise of no one, that Hollywood is a cesspool, much like the rest of the world except the cess just seems more concentrated there. Last year’s brouhaha about the wrong film being announced as Best Picture seems like another more innocent time.

So with Hollywood still reeling and possibly feeling more than a little sheepish about various exposés of secrets everyone knew, the producers of the 90th Academy Awards are treading very carefully.  Last year’s Best Actor winner, Casey Affleck has been banished has withdrawn from presenting this year’s Best Actress Award (which is the tradition) because of a sexual harassment suit from a few years’ back.  My first prediction for this year’s ceremony is that there will be a lot of speech-ifying.

The affirmative action that has been put into place so Academy membership isn’t mainly wealthy, middle-aged, white dudes will be slow to show progress (I have been banging on about that since I started my Oscar previews) but keeping a spotlight on the issue may work faster and  might even be paying off - the acting nominees aren’t all white and the films nominated aren’t just about menfolk.  See Hollywood that wasn’t so hard.  I call this progress,  the beginning of it anyway.  Now what we need them to do is stop using sexual violence against women as a go to plot point.

Best picture

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pretty much every film here has at one stage or another been touted as a possible frontrunner for Best Picture.  The first out of the box was the horror/satire Get Out  which, like all the best horror and satire, is about so much more than it seems (in this case, race and entitlement).  As well as being zeitgeisty, it also made a tidy sum at the box office and Hollywood respects that.  Soon after the love story Call Me By Your Name started gaining momentum and obviously stuck in people’s heads enough to still be a contender almost a year later.  About six months ago, everyone was saying Dunkirk was a sure thing. It’s been a big year for World War II buffs, with Darkest Hour also given the nod but I think it is the only film here not really considered a frontrunner.   The Post has Spielberg, Streep and Hanks so it was considered a shoo-in especially as it is politically zeigeisty*.  Phantom Thread reunites Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis (they made There Will Be Blood) for a film that explores the private machinations of relationships and makes single people feel not so bad that they're single.  If you like a coming of age story, then one of the best of all is LadyBird.   

But getting to the pointy end, the competition is between two films:  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is the popular choice (according to the woman behind me in the ticket queue, it’s the film of the decade.  I think she should see more films).  I understand its appeal - it taps in to an unarticulated rage against injustice and the establishment that won’t answer questions they didn't want to hear in the first place.  The rage is irrational and so is some of the plot but the acting is all top drawer. I liked the ending.  However, The Shape of Water has racked up 13 nominations this year and is everyone’s pick for Best Picture because it is the Best Picture - really, I can’t fault it.  And as this year is all about addressing diversity, it is about outsiders triumphing against dominant, malevolent forces.  For the record, best film I saw last year was The Death of Stalin but apparently it wasn’t released in time for this year’s awards.  I’m expecting big things next year.

Best actor

Timothée Chalamet (Elio) Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis (Reynolds Woodcock) Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluga (Chris Washington) Get Out

Gary Oldman (Winston Churchill) Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington (Roman J Israel) Roman J Israel, Esq

Surprisingly, Timothee Chalamat is the second youngest actor to be nominated in this category (he’s 22 - the youngest was Mickey Rooney at the age of 19 in the 1940s.  It wasn‘t until 2002 that an actor under the age of 30 won - Adrian Brody for The Pianist and he was 29).   Apparently Phantom Thread is Daniel Day-Lewis’s (actually it’s Sir Daniel Day-Lewis these days) last film as he is retiring.  So he says.  It’s his sixth nomination - he’s won three times so he’s the winning-est actor ever.  Daniel Kaluuya was so convincing as an African American in peril in Get Out, it is surprising to find out he’s British - he’s that good!  Denzel Washington’s performance as an eccentric lawyer in Roman J Isreal Esq is a surprise inclusion, because it was assumed someone by the name of James Franco was going to get a nod for The Disaster Artist but then allegations surfaced about him swimming in the cesspool.  A shame because his performance was exceptional.  But it’s all academic because this year, the current Best Actor Never To Win an Oscar, Gary Oldman, will relinquish his title, for his transformative turn as Winston Churchill - and there is way more to his performance than the make-up.  Only Day Lewis could cause an upset.  

The new holder of the best actor/actress to never win an Oscar title will be Judy Davis.

Best actress

Sally Hawkins (Elisa Esposito), The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand (Mildred Hayes), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie (Tonya Harding) I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan (Christine “Ladybird“ McPherson) Lady Bird

Meryl Streep (Kay Graham) The Post

Margot Robbie is from the Gold Coast so she’s something of a local.  Apparently she visited the Goldie while she was learning to skate for I, Tonya and searched out ice skating rinks nearby to practice.  I’d like her to win just so she could give a shout out to the Acacia Ridge Ice Skating rink. It is also unusual to see a movie about a sportswoman so Robbie deserves kudos for producing this film as well.  Saoirse Ronan is raking up nominations at an alarming rate (it’s her third and she’s only 24 - her first was at 13 for Atonement) and her turn in Lady Bird shows all the nominations are justified.  I think it was Isabelle Huppert who said there are only four spots in this category because one always goes to Meryl Streep.  The Post wasn’t one of her better performances but she’s Meryl and doesn't give bad performances.  Sally Hawkins plays a mute in The Shape of Water but she communicates so much of what she is feeling that you forget she never speaks so if there is any justice at the Oscars - which often there isn‘t - she (or Soairse Ronan) would get Best Actress.  But Frances McDormand will most likely pick up her second Oscar because she has lots of dramatic speeches - and does them very well - in Three Billboards (and as I’ve already said, those speeches seem to have touched a nerve despite it being an uneven film). 

Best supporting actress

Mary J Blige (Florence Jackson) Mudbound

Allison Janney (LaVona) I, Tonya

Lesley Manville (Cyril Woodcock) Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf (Marion McPherson) Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer (Zelda Fuller) The Shape of Water

Mary J Blige has two chances of winning an Oscar as she is nominated here for her performance as the stoic family matriarch in Mudbound and for Best Song for the same movie. Interesting factoid - Lesley Manville was once married to Gary Oldman.  She’s here for her turn as the steely, indulgent and protective sister of Reynolds Woodcock in Phantom Thread and this is a good thing as she has been unsung for years.  Octavia Spencer must be getting to the point that she just blocks out her diary this time of year because this is her third nomination (she was nominated last year for Hidden Figures and won a few years back for The Help)as Elisa’s chatterbox friend in The Shape of Water.  While I would like to see Laurie Metcalf win for playing all mums everywhere in Lady Bird, the Oscar this year will go to the one and only CJ Cregg I mean Allison Janney for her turn as Tonya Harding’s monster, I mean mother.  There seems to be a trend this year of Oscars going to women who drop the c-bomb in their performances.  Hmmm.

Best supporting actor 

Willem Dafoe (Bobby) The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson (Willoughby) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins (Giles) The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer (J. Paul Getty) All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell (Dixon) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is my opportunity to say that if there was an overlooked film this year, it was The Florida Project - I guess the subject matter of poverty in America is too uncomfortable.  Its only nomination is for Willem Dafoe as the kindly hotel manager.  He is in with a shot though especially if people will want to give the film some acknowledgement.  My reaction to hearing that Christopher Plummer was nominated was “and isn’t that a giant Eff You to Kevin Spacey”.  If you’ve been living under a rock you may not know that once sexual misconduct allegations emerged about Spacey, Ridley Scott decided to re-shoot his scenes in All the Money in the World in three weeks or something.  He’s also the oldest actor or actress to get a nomination in any category (he’s 88).  Richard Jenkins is one of those actors who has popped up in so many movies over the years he is a household face, but not a household name - in The Shape of Water he plays Elisa’s neighbour and ally for her unlikely love story.  Sam Rockwell might have been shortlist to inherit Gary Oldman’s old title of best actor never to get an Oscar but he’s the favourite this year.  It is Rockwell’s best performance BUT there’s been a bit of controversy from people who don’t understand films/scripts etc because it is felt his character, who is a racist, is too easily redeemed by the end of the film*.  And Woody Harrelson is also nominated for the same film which could split the vote.  Back to Willem Dafoe then.  But probably Sam Rockwell. 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

As many women have been nominated for Best Director, as have been married to Gary Oldman (that is to say five).  But the Oscars has been going for 90 years and  Oldman has only been getting married since 1987 so either not enough women have been nominated or Gary Oldman gets married way too much.  Actress Greta Gerwig is nominated for Lady Bird which she also wrote.  She also wrote and starred in a little film called Frances Ha a few years back and I highly recommend it.  Jordan Peele is nominated for getting the balance right between horror and comedy in Get Out.  Like Gerwig, he also wrote the screenplay.  One of them will win Best Screenplay.  Dunkirk is very much a director’s film and Christopher Nolan was an early favourite and but will have to wait his turn.  Paul Thomas Anderson makes very layered films and Phantom Thread is no exception - it’s not really about fashion at all… If Guillermo Del Toro wins (and he probably will - see previous comments on The Shape of Water), he will be the fourth Mexican director to win in the last five years.  They have achieved dominance in this category by using the ploy of making really interesting movies.     

Best cinematography

Blade Runner 2049 

Darkest Hour 

Dunkirk 

Mudbound 

The Shape of Water 

I don’t normally cover the Best Cinematography category but there are a couple of things to note:  This is Roger Deakins fourteenth nomination and so far he’s never won so maybe his work on Blade Runner 2049 will be his big chance.  It did look quite splendid.  The other notable thing in this category is that for the first time a woman (Rachel Morrison for Mudbound) has been nominated for cinematography.  It’s 2018.  *Audible sigh*

So that’s my Oscar wrap for this year.  I would really like it if Jimmy Kimmel told this joke:  with all the awful stories coming out about men in the entertainment industry, no one should find it hard to believe that a woman would opt for supernatural amphibian men as life partners.

*  Now officially a word

*  Note to people who don’t understand film/story arcs / character development.  Rockwell’s character is indeed racist but he is also stupid and angry, which usually precedes racism (and sexism and all the other -isms) and is generally a fairly pitiable person.  I mean, his racism is regarded by all the other characters as a fairly significant character flaw.  It isn’t excused but in the end when Willoughby points out that his anger is what is holding him back, it is only then that his rehabilitation starts.